This project will focus on the development of mathematical models to evaluate the effectiveness of a childhood vaccination program to combat oral herpes infection.
Postdoctoral fellow: Dr. Yijun Lou, Mathematics and Statistics, York University
Lead faculty member: Dr. Jane Heffernan, Mathematics and Statistics, York University
Genital herpes (GH), caused by Herpes simplex virus type 1 or 2 (HSV-1 or -2), is one of the most prevalent sexually transmitted diseases in the world. Currently, there is no effective treatment for GH, but a new vaccine Simplirix (by GSK), is currently in clinical trials. Simplirix has had some success in preventing disease, but only in females that are HSV-1 and -2 negative. Since oral herpes (OH, also caused by HSV-1 and -2) infection can occur at very early ages, vaccination against GH may be most effective in a childhood vaccination program. We will develop mathematical models to evaluate the effectiveness of a program focusing on a two-dose regimen for girls from 0-13 years. We will determine the potential impact of the program on GH prevalence, identify what characteristics have the most impact on transmission and evaluate the potential impact OH prevalence, since cross-protection is likely.